The IPO Market Awakens
Hello there, financial explorers and market enthusiasts! Today, I've brought you a truly electrifying topic: The Great Awakening of the IPO Market!
After what felt like an eternity, the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market is finally shaking off its slumber. For the past three years, it's been a quiet, almost sleepy landscape for new company listings. But guess what? The silence has been broken, and we're seeing a fantastic surge of activity! While it's not the wild West of 2021, there's a buzz of optimism, alongside some intriguing challenges on the horizon.
Let's dive into what's happening and what we can expect!
☆ Topic 1: The IPO Market's Grand Reawakening
Remember 2021? That was the last time we saw a genuine flurry of IPOs. Well, this year, things are looking up dramatically! As of mid-June 2025, a whopping 95 companies have already listed on U.S. exchanges, collectively raising an impressive $15.6 billion. That's a 30% jump from last year and nearly double the activity we saw in 2022 and 2023. Talk about a comeback!
Now, before you get too excited, let's keep it real. We're not back to the "everyone-and-their-dog-is-going-public" days of 2021. As Matt Kennedy, senior IPO strategist at Renaissance Capital, wisely points out, "We are not back to 2021 levels where everyone was piling in." Brad Bernstein of FTV Capital adds, "The IPO market is back from the dead because the last three years were so awful. But I wouldn’t say it’s vibrant. I would say it’s still pretty selective."
So, while the market is definitely "back," it's doing so with a more discerning eye. Many companies are still waiting in the wings, with about 200 firms having confidentially filed to list on Nasdaq alone! The pipeline is robust, and anticipation is building!
☆ Topic 2: Success Stories & Rising Stars
This year's batch of IPOs has already delivered some incredible success stories, giving both companies and investors a much-needed boost of confidence. These aren't just minor gains; we're talking about some serious wins!
- Circle: This crypto firm had a breakout moment, with its shares soaring an astounding 168% on its debut. Even better, it's continued to climb, now up a staggering 677% from its initial $31 offer price!
- CoreWeave: An AI infrastructure powerhouse, CoreWeave has seen its stock gain a phenomenal 359% since its March listing, despite a rocky start.
- AIRO: This drone developer is up 122% since listing on June 13th.
Beyond these high-flyers, we've also seen solid performances from:
- eToro: The online broker has gained a respectable 14%.
- Chime: The popular neobank has risen by 9.2% since its IPO.
The success of these oversubscribed IPOs, particularly from names like Chime, Circle, and eToro, is incredibly encouraging. As David Mort, a general partner at Propel Venture Partners, observes, "We expect more CEOs to pick up the phone after watching these new listings." It seems the confidence is contagious!
☆ Topic 3: Clouds on the Horizon? Risks and Volatility
While the IPO market is enjoying its moment in the sun, it's crucial to acknowledge the potential storm clouds gathering. Several macroeconomic factors could throw a wrench in the works and cause volatility, which, let's be honest, is never good for new listings.
- Geopolitical Strife: David Roos, a partner with venture firm Core Innovation Capital, highlights the risk of a possible war in the Middle East. Increased global tensions, such as the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities mentioned in the article, can make investors hesitant and impact market stability.
- Tariffs and Trade Wars: Remember President Trump's sweeping tariff policy announced in April? It triggered a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market and caused several high-profile companies, like specialty lender Klarna and ticketing platform StubHub, to put their IPOs on hold. Although Chime eventually pushed through, Klarna and StubHub are still waiting. Many of these tariffs were on a 90-day pause set to expire in July, leading to predictions of more volatility ahead. As Renaissance's Kennedy puts it, "There is still a possibility that tariffs will bite back and cause the IPO market to slow down again."
Summer is usually a quieter time for IPOs anyway, with many bankers taking well-deserved vacations. While we might see moderate activity (perhaps two to three deals a week), the really big splashes are generally reserved for the fall.
☆ Topic 4: What's Next? The Fall Forecast & Beyond
Despite the potential headwinds, hopes remain high for the second half of 2025. If markets can maintain stability and major macro issues don't escalate, we could be in for an exciting fall! This is traditionally the strongest time for new issues, and several marquee names are on everyone's watch list:
- Klarna (the specialty lender) and StubHub (the ticketing platform) – both previously delayed, could finally make their move.
- Figma: This design software unicorn has confidentially filed with the SEC.
- Crypto powerhouses like Gemini and Bullish are also rumored to be preparing for public debuts.
- Medline: The Blackstone-backed medical supply company.
And then there are the perennial "when will they IPO?" candidates that we're always buzzing about:
- Stripe
- Plaid
- Revolut
- Databricks
- Discord
- Canva
Some of these deals might even push into 2026, but the pipeline is undoubtedly full of exciting prospects!
☆ Topic 5: The Aftermarket Challenge: Lockups & Investor Sentiment
Going public is just the first step! The real test for an IPO is how its shares perform after the initial debut – the "aftermarket performance." We saw this clearly in 2021, when 397 companies went public, raising a record $142.4 billion. Today, about 80% of those companies are still trading below their IPO price. This poor performance understandably made investors wary for years.
One critical factor influencing aftermarket performance is the lockup period. When a company goes public, insiders (like employees and early investors) are typically restricted from selling their shares for a set time, usually 90 to 180 days. Once this lockup expires, these insiders are free to sell, which can lead to increased share volatility or even a drop in price.
- Chime is currently under pressure. While it rose 37% on its debut, it has dipped in recent trading sessions. If it "breaks" (drops below its $27 offer price), it could signal a loss of investor sentiment and impact other fintech companies considering an IPO.
- CoreWeave has a 180-day lockup expiring in September.
- Chime and Circle both have lockups ending in December.
The true test for these recent successes will come when their lockups terminate. As FTV's Brad Bernstein notes, "If the stocks are below the IPO price 200 days from now, that is not a good sign. If they trade above the IPO price as the volume of sellers picks up, that will be a very positive sign." It’s a nail-biting waiting game!
☆ Questions
Q1. Is the IPO market back to the "go-go" levels of 2021?
A. No, not quite. While there's a significant increase in listings compared to the last three years, the market is much more selective and isn't seeing the same frenzy of companies, many of them unprofitable, rushing to go public as in 2021.
Q2. Which recent IPOs have been the most successful this year?
A. Crypto firm Circle saw its shares rise 168% on debut and is up 677% from its offer price. AI infrastructure company CoreWeave has soared 359%, and drone developer AIRO is up 122%. Online broker eToro and neobank Chime have also seen solid, albeit more modest, gains.
Q3. What are the main risks that could derail the current IPO market recovery?
A. The primary risks include macroeconomic issues such as geopolitical strife (e.g., potential conflicts in the Middle East) and the reintroduction or escalation of tariffs, which can cause market instability and investor hesitation.
Q4. What is an "IPO lockup," and why is it important for a newly public company?
A. An IPO lockup is a period (usually 90-180 days) during which company insiders (employees, early investors) are restricted from selling their shares after the company goes public. It's important because once the lockup expires, a large volume of shares can become available, potentially causing increased volatility or a drop in the stock price as more sellers enter the market.
☆ Conclusion
The IPO market has definitely woken up, offering a much-needed breath of fresh air after years of dormancy. We're seeing exciting success stories and a strong pipeline of companies eager to make their public debut. However, this invigorated market isn't without its challenges. Geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and the crucial test of aftermarket performance (especially post-lockup) will all play a significant role in shaping the trajectory of IPOs through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.